With only weeks to go for the 11th general elections in Bangladesh, media analysts in India are a divided lot. Intriguingly, the hard-line right-wing media closely aligned with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is more favourably inclined towards their counterparts in Bangladesh, the ruling Awami League.
In comparison, liberal sections of the Indian political commentariat are far more critical of the Awami League (AL). Obviously, more aligned with the BNP-led opposition in Bangladesh, they focus more on what they portray as ‘the erosion of democracy and its institutions under the AL’. They target incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina unreservedly, for having launched a strong ‘personality cult,’ in their opinion.
In this, the Indian ‘libs’ whose space within the media has shrunk increasingly during the BJP’s tenure, are no more than a mirror image of similar analysts based in the West, or entities like the Amnesty International. This has been an enduring phenomenon with the liberal establishment in India, which never fails to arouse much derision and contempt among their critics at the centre and on the right.
What also divide Indian analysts on issues relating to Bangladesh are their areas of emphasis. The right-wing ‘nationalist’ Indian media is impressed with the present pace and extent of economic progress achieved by their next door neighbour. They do not hesitate to admit it. They strongly believe that at the end of the day, a well-fed, satisfied population remains the safest bet, the most enduring support base, for any ruling party.
“And few other parties could have done better in this respect, keeping people happy through rapid economic progress, than the ruling Awami League in Bangladesh. Such achievements do not come easy,” says Shantanu Sinha, who heads the BJP’s legal cell in West Bengal. “Just look at their progress in their human resources development programs — better than ours in several areas!”
And a journalist, who recently returned from Bangladesh, adds that another major electoral dividend for the present prime minister and her party is the much improved international image of Bangladesh. “Especially, new voters and the youths are naturally proud that no one now describes their country as a bottomless basket anymore,” he says. “This is a big plus for the ruling party as it braces for the polls.”
Most observers feel that the opposition in Bangladesh will find it very difficult to negate, belittle or deny, the highly positive economic narrative so painstakingly scripted by the ruling PM and her party over the years. The present frenzied efforts of opposition leaders to cobble together a convincing façade of a united, cohesive counter to the ruling AL was only to be expected. “However, their request to the Election Commission for more time to put their house in order can only be seen as an avoidable confession of their own disarray,” says an observer.
The ruling establishment of Bangladesh played its cards well by appearing to honour this request in spirit, if not in substance, declaring a short breathing space to let the opposition put its own house in order. Right wing or left, most analysts in India strongly feel that above all, the big mistake they had made in 2014 has come back to haunt them. Boycotting the polls and staying away from Parliament, they could not launch sustained democratic agitations on burning issues that could broadly mobilise the masses.
Instead, entities like the Hifazat-e Islam came up and took over the extremist end of the opposition political spectrum, denying the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) its customary space and domination.
Many analysts feel the Hifazat grew from the vacuum left by the BNP, to the extent where even the ruling AL was forced to come to terms with it. The rapid maturing of Hifazat as a functioning political entity could never have occurred without some popular support. It also gave an effective check to naïve analysts, who believed that with the self-dictated marginalisation of the BNP, religious fundamentalism had also been done away with.
This part of the AL’s agenda, to keep Hifazat on its side, worries the pro- BJP media. Hifazat is sufficiently strong to force the prime minister to announce 500 new madrasas to be set up, their passing out certificates to be given the equivalent status of standard university degrees.
If necessary, the project would be helped with Saudi money — more sweet music to orthodox Islamist ears, no doubt. But then, “What could the prime minister do, fighting elections in a country with 90 percent Muslim population?” asks a former West Bengal Home department official.
The so-called ‘Islamisation of literature in Bangladesh’ too, has been taken note of by Indian commentators.
But what of the BNP, which is now without its top leader, while her heir apparent Tarique Rahman is in a self-exile in London. The BNP seems to have lost out not only to the AL but the Hifazat as well. It’s paying for its poll boycott decision and the long hibernation that followed it, which marginalised it internationally too.
Nevertheless, the Awami League also faces problems galore in the medium and long-term. Compromising with Hifazat is only a minor glitch. The challenge of global warming, creating jobs for hundreds of thousands of aspirants, competing in exports with regional economies like Thailand, Sri Lanka and India, are major challenges.
As for remittances, more borders are closing all over the world than opening; look at Saudi Arabia. Trade wars and multiple sanctions do not help the world economy to expand. Accepting help from Saudi Arabia also has its hidden costs. It may be akin to helping Pakistan get in through the back door. The problem of the Rohingyas remains in place as business is still unfinished.
To be seen a statesperson, Sheikh Hasina will have to look well beyond the next general elections.