The ruling Awami League will clinch up to 220 seats in the 11th parliamentary election slated for Dec 30, says Sajeeb Wazed Joy, an adviser to the prime minister.
Sharing the party’s outlook for election on Facebook citing an opinion poll on Thursday, Awami League chief Sheikh Hasina’s son said, “... I am confident that the Awami League will win somewhere between 168 to 220 seats on its own.
More than 51,000 registered voters in 51 constituencies were interviewed for the polls, according to Joy.
The constituencies were selected from a mathematical analysis of all national election results between 1991 and 2008.
The opinion poll results suggest that on a party basis the Awami League leads in all 51 constituencies—with the smallest lead 12.2% in Joypurhat 1 and the largest 75% in Barisal 4. The smallest undecided vote is 2.5% in Tangail 3 where the Awami League lead is 41.5% and the largest is 19.8% in Satkhira 3 where the Awami League lead is 64.7%, far above the undecided vote.
Candidates were excluded from the poll, as it was held prior to the nominations. The results show that the average Awami League vote is 66% to BNP's 19.9%, with an average 8.6% undecided. The Awami League margin is far above the undecided vote. More importantly, there are no constituencies where the BNP is within a 10% margin of Awami League, and only two where they are within 20%.
In fact, in 28 or more than half of the 51 constituencies, Awami League has a margin greater than 50%. A margin greater than 10% is impossible to surpass by a second party and a margin greater than 20% cannot be surpassed even with multiple parties and independent candidates.
Joy added that the polling was done by an outside polling organization, the Research and Development Center.

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