Bangladesh showing signs of recession?

Golam Mowla
Published : 07:30, Nov 20, 2019 | Updated : 23:50, Nov 20, 2019

A Man jumping from one train to another in Dhaka REUTERS/File PHotoThe economy of the country is under pressure; in addition to a price hike of essentials, foreign trade also faces a crisis. Apart from the remittance sent by expatriates, all indicators in the economy are showing negative traits.
Bangladesh Bank sources say that the indicators associated with a burgeoning economy are currently on a downward trend.
Executive director of Policy Research Institute (PRI) Dr Ahsan H Mansur has compared the situation to an economic recession.
He said: “The overall condition of the country is dismal; the economies of India and China are also showing negative trends and we may also fall into recession.”
“If we admit that Bangladesh is in economic recession then coming out of it will be possible, otherwise, the country’s economy will face further pressure,” he added.
Bangladesh Bank information says that in the last few months, the export trade has collapsed along with import trade, loan flow has reduced and foreign currency reserve has fallen to $ 31 billion.
Inflation is high and default loan has risen.
Former finance adviser Dr AB Mirza Azizul Islam said: “I am getting the whiff of a recession and we need to prepare for this.”
Former Bangladesh Bank Governor Dr Atiur Rahman observed: “There is an economic malaise all over the world now, but in comparison, Bangladesh is in a better position; since a global recession is coming we need to be prepared.”
President of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers’ Association (BGMEA) Rubana Huq, said: “Between Oct 1 and Oct 28, garment export has fallen by 22 percent ----- in the same period last year, growth was 36 percent.”
Trade deficit in last July was $979 million which rose to $3.72 billion in September.
Loan disbursement has also fallen and loan growth has come down to 10 percent.
Balance of payment also faced deficit which has come to $ 678 million in the July-September quarter.
Bangladesh Bank says that due to stagnation in foreign trade, foreign currency reserve has also fallen. On Jun 22, 2017, foreign reserve reached a record $33 billion but on Nov 14 it came down to $31 billion.
Meanwhile, till June, default loan has come to stand at TK 1124.25 billion which is 11.69 percent of the total disbursed loan.