‘’America first’’ is actually ‘’America alone’’

Send
Md. Sharif Hasan
Published : 21:14, Jun 15, 2018 | Updated : 21:18, Jun 15, 2018

Md. Sharif HasanLet’s start with the statistics. The U.S. has imposed tariffs of 25% on Steel and 10% on Aluminum imports from Canada, Mexico and the EU.
This means, American companies now have to pay more if they buy those goods. The most affected is northern neighbour Canada, the largest supplier of both Steel and Aluminum to the U.S. It is retaliating with duties that will impact 12.8 billion dollars in American imports.
Mexico responded with new charges on U.S. firm and industrial products and the EU is proposing to tax 3.4 billion dollars’ worth of U.S. exports, including on signature products like Harley-Davidson motorcycles and Bourbon whiskey.
To that end, questions being asked: Is he trying to inject a protectionist dose into the U.S. political agenda or, are what we are witnessing part of an erratic and improvised policy that could create further shocks in the international global markets?
Understandably, there’s a little bit of both. On one hand, if we think of a rule-based system as enshrined in the World Trade Organization, what President Trump is doing is using the excuse of national security in order to impose protectionist measures.
Now, it is difficult to think of national security when the United States is targeting countries like Canada, Mexico and the European Union.
Consequently, this will create a conflict with the rule-based system that has worked quite well in the last half-century and more.
So, the question that comes next is: what would be the reaction of other politicians and multilateral organizations?
Because, that may put a bigger threat to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
At the same time, EU and other countries placing the case to the WTO may give upper-hand to the WTO to make sure that this erratic scheme is a put into context and is stopped before it leads to further damages.
It seems that Trump is opening the door for further compromise in the near future.
On one hand, he’s just using this as a pretext to seek further leverage at the NAFTA or when it comes to negotiating deals with the EU.
Without doubt, the line he’s pursuing is very dangerous because it’s making enemies quite fast.
The question remains: Is this the best strategy to get something in the bargaining table with the European Union?
Also, Trump’s vacillating nature is a cause for worry. We have seen ample evidence of that in the recent past.
These political dynamics aside, the costs of sanctions applied so far are relatively limited. Steel and aluminium exports are not huge in the United States.
So, the direct impact is relatively small.
The worry is, this may provoke an immediate retaliation from Canada, Mexico and soon, the EU.
Worries compound due to the lingering speculation that Donald Trump is eager to up the ante by broadening the conflict to cars. If this current trade ‘tug of war’ intensifies, consequences will be severe, to say the least.
Also, worth noting that Trump’s behaviour is always erratic: one minute he’s threatening, the next minute there’s compromise in the tone.
He almost shut down a Chinese mobile phone company called ZTE and then, in an unexpected turn of decision, gave it a reprieve.
One minute there’s a trade war with China, the next minute he’s best friends with President Xi. Incidentally, when these tariffs were initially threatened, we saw them suspended quite quickly.
So, with Trump and his unpredictable behaviour, it’s hard to say what his next move will be.
Simply put, he keeps making threats that there’re no interest from other sides to compromise.
President Trump is destroying global geopolitical order, pulling out of the ‘Paris Climate Change’ deal, rejecting the Iran nuclear deal, starting a trade war with USA’s closest allies, often adopting a disdainful attitude towards them.
His actions are posing a threat to the global state of affairs, be it on financial, trade or environmental terms;since, each of these dimensions magnify the other, his actions may be seen as efforts to obliterate an old system to set up a new one, where Trump’s caprices will be the defining factor with his “America first” ending up being “America Alone.”

Md. Sharif Hasan is a commentator on international politics, and is currently working as a field researcher on behalf of the Centre for Genocide Studies (CGS), University of Dhaka. 

/pdn/tf/
***The opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions and views of Bangla Tribune.
Top