Russia, Iran and Turkey had enough time to set aside their differences at Tehran Summit. But, differences seem to continue. It’s the bottom line that all three differ on Syria. And, as far as the Summit concerned the major disagreements occurred between Turkey and Russia. It was quite an open discussion between Erdogan and Putin. When Erdogan asked Russia to agree on a ceasefire in Idlib, Putin countered Erdogan by saying that there were terrorists in Idlib and he could not make any commitments.
Basically, the countries agreed to postpone a major offensive on Idlib which helped both Russia and Turkey.
There are no guarantees that all the parties will agree on ways to end the war in Syria. So, let’s consider one possible scenario: scenario one, no political agreement on a military campaign in Idlib. Isn’t this something that is likely to further mess up the political situation in Syria?
It’s a quite complicated situation and whether any Idlib solution will help to facilitate the political process is not certain. Russia agrees with Turkey to postpone the offensive. Because currently, Russia needs Turkey on board in Syria to consolidate military gains into gains in the political track.
Without Turkey it would be very hard to enjoy the fruit of all previous efforts. However, the situation in Idlib is seen by most western experts as a turning point. From the perspective of a long-term Syria reconstruction or restoration, Idlib isn’t that important. It’s important from a logistical point of view because it connects highways from Aleppo to coastal areas and then also toward Homs. But if we look at Eastern Euphrates, it is those territories which are going to be crucial in the next stages where oil reserves and refineries which are crucial for Syria’s reconstruction process and for Damascus to gain them back.
It is safe to say at this particular moment that the Russians and the Iranian are really in sync when it comes to the future of Syria; they speak the same language.
But in case of mid-term and long-term goals, Russia and Iran have a number of differences. And, for Russia itself Iranian excessive presence in Syria is also quite challenging because it puts at risk the Syria government regardless of whether Assad stays or another person is in power. Anyways, the excessive presence in Syria would bother Israel, United States, Europeans, Turkey and all other actors concerned.
But, the Iranian presence in Syria was there before 2011. Definitely, it has increased its military, cultural, economic and humanitarian presence during these seven years of war. And, of course it’s unrealistic to talk about the withdrawal of Iran from there. So, that would be also one of the major challenges for Moscow — to come to terms with Iran of what would be the limits of Iranian presence in Syria after the war is over.
Experts feel that it is kind of a litmus test for Russia and Turkey if they come to terms on how to deal with Idlib and carry further the political process. As the article has already mentioned that Russia needs Turkey on board because without Turkey’s assistance it would be almost impossible to deal with Syrian opposition which is backed by Ankara since 2014. So, this is why it’s crucial for Moscow to maintain good relations and strike a deal with the Turkey.
The bottom line? There’s a chance for all parties to agree. But the first principle is that we need to have an end to the Syrian civil war; you cannot have the civil war continue forever. It’s been seven years of death and destruction. The sooner Idlib is freed from terrorists, the sooner peace prevails in Syria and the people of Syria are very much in need of peace.
The second point is the grave humanitarian situation in Idlib.
UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura had an interesting solution when he spoke in the United Nation recently and that was separating the terrorist organizations from the population. In fact, he called for a campaign by the general public in Idlib to force terrorist organizations out of the cities. This could be an interesting solution.
The third issue is Syria’s territorial integrity. If countries and parties to this conflict can agree on these three principles, a lot of problems will be resolved.

Md. Sharif Hasan works as a field researcher for the Centre for Genocide Studies (CGS) at the University of Dhaka