As leaders of Russia, Iran and Turkey have been unable to find common ground at the high-stakes Tehran summit to decide the fate of Idlib, Syria's last rebel stronghold, the Syrian government and its main ally Russia appear to be preparing for an all-out offensive. For the rebels, it would likely be the last stand after more than seven years of fighting, which has resulted in a massive military and human cost.
Idlib is also home to nearly three million people - almost half of them displaced from territory already recaptured by the Syrian government - including Aleppo, Eastern Ghouta and Deraa provinces.
If this comes down to a final military push, would it be different from what we’ve seen in Eastern Ghouta or Aleppo? What will an assault on Idlib tell us about Syria’s future?
It’s true that during last year, the world has noticed quite a familiar pattern in Syrian government’s moves in Russia’s dealings. First, it was East Aleppo; then came Ghouta and lastly it was Deraa. It’s worth noticing that all this time Russia’s involvement was limited to planned airstrikes in support of Syrian government forces. Now that Idlib is the last remaining area not under Assad’s control, Russia definitely wants it to snuff out what resistance remains there.
But, the Idlib story is somewhat different because Turkey is also involved. The regional Kurdish issue is also on the agenda here. This is why it’s more complicated. Moscow clearly needs to continue its consistent approach to demonstrate that it backs its ally and wants it to take the territory.
It is important to note that the most powerful man in Idlib Muhammad al-Julani, the leader of Hay'et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has said that his group is determined to fight to the death in Idlib. This group was formerly associated with Al-Qaeda known as the Nusra Front.
The manpower that Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham has to be taken into consideration along with the strength of other groups in Idlib in terms of the numbers involved, Syria has more than 40 to 50 thousands fighters and that number Syrian people haven’t seen in other places. The world will most likely see more resistance on the ground, which means more destruction on all sides.
The other issue is that Hay'et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other rebels groups don’t have any other option but to fight. Russia and the regime want to eliminate the HTS as well as other rebels groups who are controlling those areas. Because the ultimate goal for the regime is to restore its authority over Idlib and that can only be done if all groups are eliminated.
On a more serious note, let’s remember that for the rebels, it could be the beginning of the end. Even though the rebels in Idlib might be able to resist but they can’t hold out for long. At the end, they know that they will be defeated militarily. So the question right now is – will Russia or the international community be able to pressure the regime to reach some sort of political deal that’s accepted by all groups? It’s important to highlight here that we may be talking about Idlib and the rebels controlled, but we have to also talk about Kurdish controlled areas spread over more than 25% of Syria. And, the taken- over Idlib will not be a final solution because the regime has been having negotiations with those groups without much of an outcome yet.
The third and worst scenario is an all-out offensive in the rebel-dominated bastion of Idlib. This scenario will naturally prove very costly politically and militarily. It would lead to a humanitarian disaster, a massive refugee crisis and destruction at a large scale.
Lastly, for those who live in Idlib, they naturally do not feel safe because many of them are wanted by the ruling regime. Even if the regime has been able to take over Idlib, the risk doesn’t end there, new risks will emerge. The rebels will be either arrested or killed at the later stage. As for those who live outside of Syria many people say,’ we will not go back as refugees for many reasons. First, because we are scared of what might the regime do and second, because there’s no options for us to go back‘, meaning there are no jobs, most houses, are destroyed and many of the areas where they come from are completely deserted, besieged by the regime, like Daria close to Damascus.
So conditions for the return of people don’t exist and this is why many people feel that they face just another page that they have to turn, as their suffering will continue for long time.

Md Sharif Hasan works as a field researcher for the Centre for Genocide Studies (CGS) at the University of Dhaka.