Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said that her party and government would not go for dialogue with any other political parties regarding the forthcoming election. She announced this on her return from the high-level BIMSTEC meeting.
She added that the election would be held in its own course, according to the direction of the constitution.
It was a heavy blow for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). They instantly reacted by saying that it has depressed the nation. We, the people, don't know, whether it has depressed the whole nation or not. But we can easily understand that it has made BNP very jittery.
Before the election, any type of dialogue with the government party would be a great victory for the BNP. If they had sat for any type of dialogue, they would have achieved two things immediately; firstly, they would have got the recognition that they are the main opposition party versus the government. Secondly, people would have got a sign that the government has begun talking to the BNP. People, on the contrary, have got the signal that Hasina did not count BNP as a big opponent.
But in reality, the BNP is now in a worse shape. They are getting marginalized every day after their leader Khaleda Zia went to jail. Every day their local leaders and workers are joining the ruling Awami League. But there is no new recruitment in their own party now. In this situation, only a dialogue could give them a new life in a peaceful way. However, that way has been abandoned. Now, for achieving their demand, the BNP can only return to agitation-politics. The BNP is also endeavouring for it; they are trying to make a common platform with all the small political parties of the country. Some small political parties are trying to make an alliance, and most are one-man political parties; they have no organization, even in Dhaka city.
But the BNP finds a ray of hope here. Ironically, these small parties have given some conditions to BNP to make an alliance with them. Their main demand to the BNP is that the bigger party must not align with the Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh and it will never demand the release of BNP leader Khaleda Zia; also they will not demand the return of Tareque Rahman, the second highest leader of the BNP.
This is a major blow for the BNP from the small parties. The BNP knows it well that for elections and agitations, Jamaat is their main force. All over the country, Jamaat has an organization, but those small parties have none. So, it will not be a wise decision for the BNP to abandon the Jamaat.
Furthermore, Jamaat is not only their natural ally but a trusty one. Along with Jamaat, there are some Islamist natural allies with the BNP, but they are not as dependable as Jamaat. Some of these Islamic parties can go over to the ruling party before the election, and the government can give them facilities.
So, before the forthcoming election, the main opponent of the government will be Jamaat and BNP. But, present indications are that of it may be difficult for the BNP to leave Jamaat. If the BNP-Jamaat linkage becomes a problem, they can resort to agitational politics which can lead the country into a confrontation. It is no surprise that the government is also waiting for a confrontation-politics with BNP and Jammat. When the Jamaat and the BNP went for confrontation-politics in 2014 and 2015, it became destructive for them. The government could portray them as Islamic terrorist parties. The brand Islamic terrorist is not only a harmful label in the politics of elections but also harmful to the democratic world at large. So, if the country is heading towards confrontation politics, Bangladesh will lose huge wealth, even lives, and the opposition parties of the government will get a fresh terrorist branding.

Swadesh Roy is the executive editor of the Daily Janakantha. He can be reached at [email protected].