Incomes in many parts of Bangladesh could drop by 14.4 percent in the next 30 years if there’s any further rise in temperatures, says the World Bank.
The drop in income for similar hotspots in India is projected to be 9.8 percent while for Sri Lanka it’s 10 percent, says a new study by the global lending agency.
The report ‘South Asia’s Hotspots’ warns that most South Asian countries have already passed their optimal temperature tipping points, beyond which standards of living and consumption are only expected to drop irreversibly.
It projects around 800 million South Asians face a risk of a decline in living standards and income as rising temperatures and more erratic rainfalls will cut down crop yields, make water more scare, and push more people away from their homes to seek safer places.
In Bangladesh, the districts listed as top 10 severe hotspots—the ones that are most vulnerable—are Cox’s Bazar, Bandarban, Chittagong, Rangamati, Noakhali, Feni, Khagrachhari, Barguna, Bagerhat and Satkhira.
In India, seven of the top 10 severe hotspots are in Maharashtra’s Vidarbha region that has already seen a spate of farmer suicides in recent years.
“Most hotspots are located inland, already poor, have fewer roads and are isolated from main economic centers,” says the report’s lead author Muthukumara Mani.
He says many geographic areas across South Asia or “hotspots” which –until now—were thought to be relatively immune to climate change threats could be badly affected by 2050.
The report recommends that South Asian countries must prioritise their financial resources where they’re most needed and target the most vulnerable individuals and families.
“Countries need to focus on these severe hotspots first instead of spreading their resources,” says Mr Mani, adding,"… and actions should be tailored to local conditions.”
In order to mitigate the impact of declining living standards, his suggestion for Bangladesh is to “create jobs in the non-agricultural sector and also invest in education and infrastructure”.
The report also points out that living standards in some currently cold and dry mountain areas like Afghanistan and Nepal could improve marginally because of rise in temperatures.