Of oil, defense and sanctions of warmongers

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Saleem Samad
Published : 20:38, Jun 28, 2019 | Updated : 20:47, Jun 28, 2019

Saleem SamadMany years ago, in Washington DC, the first Intelligence Summit was held at Pentagon City, where the much-talked-about Pentagon, the military headquarters of the United States is located. The organization for the Summit has powerful and influential people from top intelligence officers from the western domain.
The yearly event is organized by several former CIA directors, former Mossad chiefs, former MI6 heads, former US Air Force Generals, and other top intelligence officials are part of the leadership of the Intelligence Summit.
In the evening of February 10, 2005, former Lt. Gen. Kenneth Minihan of USAF, President and Chairman, SASA also former Director, NSA, presented “Open Source Intelligence and 21st Century Threats” at the plenary session.
Incidentally, myself, a ruling party politician Saber Hossain Chowdhury, MP separately presented research papers, while Maj. Gen. Tarique Siddique, present Defense Adviser to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina also attended.
The flashback of the presentation by Gen Minhan occurs as US President Donald Trump threatens Iran now, years later, while Iran says that says sanctions end the possibility of a diplomatic solution.
Earlier Trump abruptly called off military strikes in Iran, hours after a US Navy air surveillance Drone was shot down over the Gulf of Oman by a missile from Iran, as Tehran claimed the plane had entered its airspace.
Nearly 14 years ago, Gen Minhan described a disgraceful strategic plan of carrying out US air strikes in Iran. The proposed strikes envisaged demobilizing all crucial Iranian military installations, which would obviously neutralize the notorious Islamic Revolution Guards Corp.
The US military is capable of hitting any target with pinpoint accuracy using the latest military hardware. If the deadly technology operators don’t know where the enemy is, the use of the military option may prove to be irrelevant.
An oil tanker is seen after it was attacked at the Gulf of Oman, in waters between Gulf Arab states and Iran, June 13, 2019. ISNA/Handout via REUTERSPresumably, the mighty Iran military may look comparatively weak pitted against the all-powerful US Army, but it unlikely that the Islamic Republic of Iran’s strong regime of the clergy will collapse.
Observers are not sure whether Trump administration made an assessment of the impact of the air strikes. With the collapse of the Islamic regime, the country would plunge into chaos and anarchy. Thus it would create warlords and heighten sectarian conflicts, like in Somalia, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia and other conflict zones.
The US General was categorically asked about the deployment of ground troops but said that the US would adopt a zero-casualty policy. Let the pro-democracy groups take responsibility to settle their scores. Outrageous!
The common understanding IS that Iran does not have effective opposition, nor any platform where dissidents can take over the government. Dissidents and critics of the Mullah regime are either in exile or languishing in prison.
If such a situation occurs in Iran, the hoped-for return to democracy and civilian rule may take decades, not to mention the never-ending story of human sufferings, agony and losses.
Once the air strikes begin, Iran will immediately plunge into a deep crisis in the region, but the deadly effects will certainly spillover in the middle-east region.
The oil price will skyrocket, due to the blockade of the Persian Gulf, the main passage of oil tankers shipping route. The crisis will have A direct Effect in all countries dependent on oil supplies from the Persian Gulf.
Defence think-tanks had said that the United States has never won any conclusive war since the Second World War.
Well, the Americans up till 1945 won virtually all the major wars they fought. The reason is those wars were overwhelmingly wars between countries.
Experts are of the opinion that Pentagon has failed to adapt to this new era of war.
Saleem Samad, is a journalist, an Ashoka Fellow (USA), recipient of Hellman-Hammett Award and also Bangladesh correspondent of Paris based international media rights organization, Reporters Without Borders (RSF). Twitter @saleemsamad Email: [email protected]

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***The opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions and views of Bangla Tribune.
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