More than 154 million people in Bangladesh are currently living in areas projected to become climate hotspots, the World Bank said.
Hotspots are defined as areas where changes in average weather like changes in temperature and rainfall will adversely affect living standards, the WB says in the report – South Asia’s Hotspots: The Impact of Temperature and Precipitation Changes on Living Standards – released on Thursday.
Bangladesh is currently home to 163 million populations. Of the total population, 20.4 million live in the areas, which are severely prone to become climate ‘hotspot’ while 107.9 million live in moderate and 26.4 million live mild area.
Changes in temperature and rainfall will also cause a 14.4 percent fall in per capita GDP of its citizens by 2050 if no action taken by then, the World Bank said.
The loss will amount to $1.71 billion, approx. Tk 14.3 trillion.
The report says, “More than 800 million people—almost half of South Asia’s populations— currently live in areas that are projected to become moderate to severe hotspots by 2050 under the carbon-intensive scenario.”
In Bangladesh, the report says, Chittagong Division is the most vulnerable to changes in average weather, followed by Barisal and Dhaka divisions.
Chittagong is relatively more developed in terms of infrastructure compared with the national average, and is also characterized by fewer households engaged in agriculture, it adds.
However, the area includes hill tracts, which are vulnerable to changes in average weather. Over the years, the Chittagong hill tracts have experienced outbreaks of vector-borne diseases and deforestation that have resulted in major landslides and the destruction of property.
According to the report, 10 districts are most vulnerable to climate change that includes Cox’s Bazar, Bandarban, Chattogram, Rangamati, Noakhali, Feni, Khagrhachharhi, Bargna, Bagerhat and Satkhira.
For Bangladesh, the analysis suggests that enhancing opportunities in the nonagricultural sector could potentially reduce the effect of changes in average weather on living standards.
A 15 percent increase in nonagricultural employment would attenuate the effect of weather changes from –6.7 percent to –1.4 percent.
Similarly, a 30 percent increase in the share of nonagricultural employment would not only reduce the negative effect of changes in average weather but would also result in increased living standards.