Could the risk of India-Pakistan war ever be avoided?

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Md Sharif Hasan
Published : 17:39, Apr 03, 2019 | Updated : 17:47, Apr 03, 2019

Md. Sharif HasanFor the time being, we don’t have to see an India-Pakistan war. The fear of a full- fledged war between the two countries has been overcome. The apprehensions of war between India and Pakistan that have emerged this time differ from what they were before the war that took place in 1971.Both countries have gained nuclear capabilities since then. That’s why the fear of war has receded. Not only the millions of peace loving people in both countries enjoy their peace, but other South Asian countries have also got relief. But now a different situation has developed. National elections of India will be held in April and May. To get some political advantage, the BJP -led government has utilized an opportunity, which came up suddenly. Tensions grew due to the BJP's performance. By December 2018, the BJP lost elections in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. These states were known as strongholds of the party. Therefore the BJP is cannot be expected to sit down and relax, as it were.
The opportunity came in the shape of the terrorist attack in Pulwama of the Indian controlled Kashmir. On 14th February during a suicide attack resulted in the death of 42 members of India’s Central Reserve Police Force (CRF). This is the most terrible terror attack in the region so far.
A Kashmiri youth launched the Pulwama attack. The young man had recorded a video message before the attack. From that video message it is known that he worked for the Pakistan based militant organization Jaiesh-E-Mohammad or JEM. After the attack India demanded that Pakistan acknowledge that it provided assistance to JEM. Pakistan must take firm action against the accused organization in Pakistan and Pakistan -controlled Kashmir. This should be done in such a manner that India finds its efforts convincing. The BJP-led Indian government raised the same accusation against Pakistan and its demand for suitable action within the international community. Pakistan has not agreed with India's proposal. Even the international community could not create any huge pressure on Pakistan, apart from expressing their sympathy for the victims of Pulwama, to make sure that it would take rigorous steps against the attackers.
During the tension, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi turned down the Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan's proposal of talks. Modi thought that, if the Indian anger and displeasure over Pakistan’s role could be increased (the anger that he has spread in the country), it would benefit BJP in the election. That’s why he ordered the Indian air force to attack the JEM’s base in Pakistan’s Balakote and Muzafforabad of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK). After 1971, this is the first time that the Indian Air Force was ordered to cross the LOC. On 26th February morning, the Indian air force launched the attack. This attack fuelled fears of a full- fledged war between India and Pakistan. On 27th February the foreign minister of India addressed the media on a winning note announcing that, the air force successfully launched an attack on JEM’s base in Balakote. In this attack, JEM’s base was destroyed and many terrorists of JEM died, including many leaders of the organization. Some BJP leaders claimed that hundreds of JEM terrorists died in Balakote attack.
However, the BJP government failed to present any credible evidence to back their claims. This put a different complexion on the matter. The media which had been campaigning for BJP till now, became wary. The opposition parties, who were supporting the government’s move so far, also became hesitant. Thus, the BJP government started to lose the credibility of its own created plot. At first, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banargee criticized the government for the situation in Pulwama. She described the Pulwama attack as a failure of Indian intelligence and demanded action against the NSA and other she could not understand, why a convoy of 78 buses and 2500 soldiers were going through this high risky security area.
Mamata Banargee further said that the government’s description of Pakistan’s involvement in Pulwama attack depicted weakness, though Pakistan had its relations with terrorists groups and JEM. Though he reportedly belonged to the JEM, the suicide attacker could also be a member of any Kashmiri terrorist group. This possibility strongly indicates that, for electoral purposes, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi instantaneously involved Pakistan with the Pulwama attack and then struck Pakistan. It has further damaged the BJP government’s presentation.
The BJP -led government raised the issue of Pakistan’s involvement with the attack as its justification to cross LOC, but this logic backfired when it was learnt that the air force did not just establish a dangerous precedent by attacking without calculation and thinking about consequences. Moreover, the attacking planes seemed to have mixed up areas while attacking Pakistan and POK.
An Indian policeman stands guard behind concertina wire laid across a road leading to the Indian army headquarters in Srinagar December 17, 2018. REUTERSOn Feb 27, the inefficacy of Indian air strike started to become more evident when Pakistan crossed the LOC and there was a clash between the two sides in the air. Firstly, BJP’s all India President Amit Shah, along with other leaders, started to say that this attack is testimonial of Modi’s “Powerful and Rationally Successful leadership”. Indians were happy about this. However, when Pakistani fighter jet started to cross the LOC, criticism started. Again Indian air force announced their success in air battles. But again without proof. As result, criticism started and IT became more acute when the opponent parties started to feel that BJP was trying to get some political advantage from the situation.
Actually, AOC-in-Chief of Indian air force’s western command Air Marshal Chandra Shekhar Harry Kumar was dismissed for losing several IAF aircraft to Pakistan and claiming ridiculously that IAF’s MIG-21 destroyed Pakistan’s F-16 aircraft. The IAF further claimed that 24 F-16 aircraft crossed the LOC in a cluster. However, Indian air warfare specialist said, it WAS impossible for 24 F-16 aircraft to run in a cluster. Claims and counter claims between the two country continued, but later it WAS seen that most of the claims raised by India were propaganda. Meanwhile, Pakistan successfully presented a practical proof, which dramatically turned the whole situation around. For many, it doused the fear of India-Pakistan war, the outcome of which would have been terrifying.
The proof presented by Pakistan was in taking Indian pilot wing commander Abhinandan Bartaman in their custody, who is the son of former Indian pilot air marshal Simkatti Bartaman. The Indian media represented him as a hero, and demanded his safe return. Perhaps New Delhi used the demand to divert the nation’s attention. However, by doing so, New Delhi has just done what Pakistan wants. To reduce tension, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan wanted to discuss matters over phone with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but he failed. Later he grabbed everyone’s attention by announcing to send Abhinandan back. He said, he was sending Abhinandan back as a symbol of peace. Modi’s position became weaker as he did not want to talk with the Prime Minister of Pakistan and even in India it was not well accepted. PakistaniS think their prime minister should get the Nobel Prize for this step. However, Imran Khan thinks he is not worthy of this prize.
After the terrorist attack in Pulwama , the fear of another India-Pakistan war has ended. Most of the analysts concluded saying that, BJP has used Pulwama terrorist attack to strengthen their electoral prospects. It is still unclear whether New Delhi’s decision of attacking Pakistan would benefit BJP in election. Whatever, it has taken Modi to a defensive position in Indian politics, because HIS opponents have attacked him for not being able to show any success. The worse thing for Modi is, he helped Imran Khan to get his first big success as prime minister, and that even against opponent like India and against his own opponent NarendraModi.
The conflict between India and Pakistan has been sown by the British. The British created bitter relations between the two countries with cunning and deliberate plans. Lord Mountbatten, last viceroy of Great Britain and first governor general of independent India, encouraged Kashmir’s Hindu maharaja to be on Indian side. However, it was against the actual British policy taken for this kingdom of haven in 1947 during the dividing of British India. Muslim majority states wanted Kashmir to be on Pakistan’s side, on the other hand Hindu majority states wanted it to be with India. The Kashmir conflict will remain alive, if the British’s historical connivance with India is not taken into consideration as AN active partner. Pandit Nehru wanted to adjust that historical connivance and promised that India would organize a referendum in Kashmir (IOK and POK) where Kashmiri people will set their own destiny. The United Nations adopted a resolution on 13th August 1948, where the same thing was said. The latest incident is reminding the long forgotten pandit Nehru’s promise and the UN resolution.
Md Sharif Hasan teaches International Relations at the University of Rajshahi.

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***The opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions and views of Bangla Tribune.
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