Why BJP can’t make strong economy a polls issue

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Ashis Biswas
Published : 17:51, Mar 25, 2019 | Updated : 18:02, Mar 25, 2019

Ashis BiswasOnly weeks before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in India, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) faces a major paradox : it cannot claim much political credit for the country’s strong economic fundamentals , nor jubilate over the financial progress made during its tenure. The reason: the increasingly lop-sided growth of the economy which does not benefit the larger population! If anything, the built-in inequities in the economic system makes it politically unwise for India’s ruling party to crow much about the milestones that have been crossed between 2014-2019.
The extent of India’s economic progress has been truly impressive in recent years. The pace and rate of national economic growth have been fluctuating. But India’s overall growth has never really slowed down because of the occasional outbreaks of political violence, communal riots, costly oil imports, Pakistan-sponsored terrorism, or natural disasters— in short, the pet themes that consistently engage hostile sections of the Western media about India-related issues.
A few facts: between 2014 and now, India has progressed from being the 11th largest economy of the world to 5th in GDP terms. It has this year overtaken the UK, its colonial master until 1947, which now ranks 6th. Further, at the present rate of growth, India stands poised to displace Germany as the 4th largest economy by 2022.
No wonder International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director, Ms Christine Lagarde recently acknowledged India as a ‘bright spot’ in world economy, a place with ‘much potential.’ By 2028, at this rate of progress, India could well become the world’s third largest economy, after US and China, according to a study conducted by the US firm Merrill Lynch.

Question: Why are BJP leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Party president Amit Shah not exactly the most reticent of men, have not publicized these high points of achievement very much in their present election campaign?

The answer is relatively simple. The mood in the country is not exactly upbeat, as general elections are about to begin in the largest democracy. Prosperity seems to have been confined among a relatively small number of people at the top. The number of billionaires has increased, and the organised working class remains well paid, the relatively large middle class (330/350 million) continues to grow.

But that is only one side of the story. The sad truth is that an estimated 65/70% of the people still struggle for survival, looking for jobs and better education. Because of demonetization in Nov 2016 and the GST regime that was announced, millions of jobs were lost. Even before these, new jobs were not being created fast enough to absorb millions of eager youths, educated or not, looking for work.

There had been little increase in India’s exports, while rising oil prices just put more pressure on the country’s forex reserves. As for the manufacturing sector, despite the BJP’s best endeavours to ramp up the domestic production of iron, steel and coal through massive infra development projects (second only in scale to those carried out by China), progress was slow.

Increasing privatization in industries had led to the hire and fire system— more fire than hire in most establishments in banking, insurance, media, public sector and elsewhere— and massive lay-offs. One official survey showed that the number of men employed in the country had dropped from 304 million in 2011-12 to 286 million in 2017-18, countering tall positive claims emanating from a section of politicians and economists!

The situation was more alarming in the rural areas. Experts said at least 30 million of far workers lost their jobs during the same period! The cause: an increasingly stagnant rural economy.

The simple conclusion: Thanks to cost cutting through a ruthless pruning of manpower, along with an increased workload for those still employed, there had occurred profit maximization for the employers. The development had not gone unnoticed among international investors. In turn, this had helped increase their confidence in India’s economy.

At present there has occurred a surge in foreign stock inflows into India. This year, up to March so far, foreign buyers have bought Indian shares to the tune of $3.3 billion, their overall purchase totaling $5.6 billion. International Forex dealers’ firms exude confidence in India’s ‘positive domestic equity market‘.

But within India, the situation has turned grim for the majority of the people especially those with little education and without skills. It is a common sight these days to see hundreds of job seeking youths from relatively backward states (that includes Bengal), standing by the roadsides early every morning, waiting to be hired as daily labour for this or that major infra road or rail infra project ! This is common in Delhi, Noida, Gurugram, Mumbai, Bengaluru ,Chennai— in short, anywhere there is a major project on.

Unfortunately, not all get their daily quota of work, as they trudge wearily back to their little overcrowded , poorly maintained shantytowns that spring up at the outskirts of the big glittering cities.

Worse, now that farm labourers are also in distress, the shift to urban areas has increased, as all look despairingly at a bleak future.

Back in their home villages in Bihar, Jharkhand or Bengal, these people will not starve, thanks to numerous welfare projects run by the centre and the States. There is also the possibility of getting menial work at the food-for-work schemes. But the pay is too low, it is often held up for days. One may have to pay a cut to the local employers. While such schemes barely keep people alive, the work and poor pay leaves most people tired and living in debt.

No wonder BJP leaders study their audiences and their affluence quotients carefully, before waxing lyrical about India’s ongoing economic miracle!

A Kolkata-based journalist Ashis Biswas, has worked for the Hindustan Times, Ananda Bazar Patrika, The Hindu and the Outlook magazine during his long career. He has been based in New Delhi, Kolkata and the Northeast and worked in West Asia as well.

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***The opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions and views of Bangla Tribune.
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